Risk assessment of complex engineering project based on fuzzy Petri net under the perspective of vulnerability
Abstract
Traditional engineering risk management has been unable to adapt to the complexity and variability due to its constituent elements and dynamic nature of internal and external environments. Vulnerability, as a concept closely related to risk, has been neglected in the traditional risk management due to its hidden characteristics. This study attempts to quantify and evaluate vulnerabilities of complex engineering projects independently and explore the transmission mechanism between risk and vulnerability factors. Twenty different types of large-scale engineering projects in China were selected as case studies from the Mega Project Case Study Center (MPCSC) of Tongji University. Vulnerability and risk factors of each project were identified and analysed. A mechanism model was developed to explore the impacts of vulnerabilities and risks through ta Fuzzy Petri Net. Four main vulnerability-risk critical paths were identified through the reverse labelling method. The overall evaluation of engineering project risks considering the impacts of vulnerabilities is the highlight of this paper. This study interprets the cognition and evaluation of complex engineering risks from a new perspective, enriches the connotation of engineering risk management, and provides a reference for risk management and decisionmaking of complex engineering projects.
Keyword : complex engineering project, risk assessment, vulnerability, fuzzy Petri net, project risk management
How to Cite
Xuan, Q., Shi, Y., Qiao, R., & Chen, S. (2023). Risk assessment of complex engineering project based on fuzzy Petri net under the perspective of vulnerability. Journal of Civil Engineering and Management, 29(7), 639–661. https://doi.org/10.3846/jcem.2023.19517
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
References
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Johansson, J., Hassel, H., & Zio, E. (2013). Reliability and vulnerability analyses of critical infrastructures: Comparing two approaches in the context of power systems. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 120, 27–38. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2013.02.027
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Li, H., & Zhang, P. (2011). Research progress and prospective applications of vulnerability approach under global change. Progress in Geography, 7, 920–929.
Li, H., Zhang, P., & Cheng, Y. (2008). Concepts and assessment methods of vulnerability. Progress in Geography, 27(2), 18–25.
Li, Y., Le, Y., & Chong, D. (2011). Literature review on large-scale complex project organization: sociology perspectives. Journal of Engineering Management, 25(1), 46–50 (in Chinese).
Li, H., Wang, Z., Yang, Q., Zhang, Y., & Ouyang, Z. (2021). Evolutionary model and risk analysis of metro disaster chain under complex network. China Safety Science Journal, 31(11), 141.
Liang, L., Xing, G.-h., & Wu, F.-y. (2019). The evaluation model and method based on cloud theory. Journal of Northeastern University (Natural Science), 40(6), 881.
Mu, H.-B. (2010). Modeling and analyzing on road traffic accident causation based on fuzzy Petri net. Zhongguo Anquan Kexue Xuebao, 20(12), 93–97.
Okudan, O., Budayan, C., & Dikmen, I. (2021). A knowledge-based risk management tool for construction projects using case-based reasoning. Expert Systems with Applications, 173, 114776. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2021.114776
Ozcan, G., Dikmen, I., & Birgonul, M. T. (2011). Assessment of risk paths in construction projects. International Journal of Project Organisation and Management, 3(3–4), 316–334. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJPOM.2011.042036
Petri, C. A. (1962). Fundamentals of a theory of asynchronous information flow. Paper presented at the IFIP Congress.
Qiao, R. (2020). Risk assessment of complex engineering projects considering vulnerability [Master thesis]. Huaqiao University, Xiamen, China.
Qiao, R., Qin, X., & Chen, S. (2020). Defining vulnerability of complex construction projects from the Wittgenstein family-resemblance philosophy. In ICCREM 2020: Intelligent Construction and Sustainable Buildings (pp. 538–546). American Society of Civil Engineers Reston, VA. https://doi.org/10.1061/9780784483237.064
Qin, X. (2016). Vulnerability of risk paths of complex green building projects. Journal of ZheJiang University (Engineering Science), 50(11), 2177–2187.
Ren, D. (2017). Reliability diagnosis model of supply chain based on intuitionistic fuzzy Petri net. Computer Engineering and Applications, 5, 260–265 (in Chinese).
Ren, H. (2012). Gigantic projects management. Science Press (in Chinese).
Santolini, M., Ellinas, C., & Nicolaides, C. (2021). Uncovering the fragility of large-scale engineering projects. EPJ Data Science, 10(1), 36. https://doi.org/10.1140/epjds/s13688-021-00291-w
Shen, V. R., Lai, H.-Y., & Lai, A.-F. (2015). The implementation of a smartphone-based fall detection system using a high-level fuzzy Petri net. Applied Soft Computing, 26, 390–400. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asoc.2014.10.028
Shi, Q., Huang, Y., Chen, J., & Ding, X. (2018). Organization systems integration of megaprojects based on big data technologies. Journal of Systems & Management, 27(1), 137–146 (in Chinese).
Smit, B., & Wandel, J. (2006). Adaptation, adaptive capacity and vulnerability. Global Environmental Change, 16(3), 282–292. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.03.008
Su, G., & Khallaf, R. (2022). Research on the influence of risk on construction project performance: A systematic review. Sustainability, 14(11), 6412. https://doi.org/10.3390/su14116412
Timmerman, P. (1981). Resilience and the collapse of society: A review of models and possible climatic applications. Toronto, Canada: Institute for Environmental Studies. http://www.ilankelman.org/miscellany/Timmerman1981.pdf
Turner, B. L., Kasperson, R. E., Matson, P. A., McCarthy, J. J., Corell, R. W., Christensen, L., Eckley, N., Kasperson, J. X., Luers, A., Martello, M. L., Polsky, C., Pulsipher, A., & Schiller, A. (2003). A framework for vulnerability analysis in sustainability science. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 100(14), 8074–8079. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1231335100
Vidal, L. A., & Marle, F. (2012). A systems thinking approach for project vulnerability management. Kybernetes, 41(1/2), 206–228. https://doi.org/10.1108/03684921211213043
Wan, X. (2016). Analysis and assessment of metro station operation vulnerability due to passenger behaviors [PhD thesis]. Nanjin Southeast University, China.
Wu, G., & Kairong, H. (2015). Research review on risk assessment of super-huge infrastructure projects. Construction Economy, 2, 111–115 (in Chinese).
Xiang, P., & Li, J. (2016). Research on system vulnerability of interregional large-scale construction projects. Systems Engineering – Theory & Practice, 36, 2383–2390.
Xiang, P., & Pang, X. (2021). Risk integration measurement of major engineering projects. Project Management Technology, 19(9), 36–40.
Xianguo, W., Huang, Y., & Liu, H. (2016). Vulnerability analysis of subway network based on complex network theory. Journal of Chongqing Jiaotong University.
Yildiz, A. E., Dikmen, T., Toker, İ., Birgönül, M. T., Ercoskun, K., & Alten, S. (2014). A knowledge-based risk mapping tool for cost estimation of international construction projects. Automation in Construction, 43, 144–155. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.autcon.2014.03.010
Yuan, J. F., Li, Q. M., Jia, R. Y., & Wang, Z. R. (2012). Analysis of operation vulnerabilities of urban metro network system. Zhongguo Anquan Kexue Xuebao, 22(5), 92–98.
Zhang, H. (2007). A redefinition of the project risk process: Using vulnerability to open up the event-consequence link. International Journal of Project Management, 25(7), 694–701. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2007.02.004
Zhou, Y., Li, N., & Wu, W. (2014). Research progress on social vulnerability to natural disasters Journal of Catastrophology, 29(2), 128–135 (in Chinese).
Zhu, F., Hu, H., & Xu, F. (2022). Risk causation model to capture and transfer knowledge in international construction projects. Journal of Civil Engineering and Management, 28(6), 457–468. https://doi.org/10.3846/jcem.2022.16925
Amin, M., & Shebl, D. (2014). Reasoning dynamic fuzzy systems based on adaptive fuzzy higher order Petri nets. Information Sciences, 286, 161–172. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ins.2014.07.011
Apostolakis, G. E., & Lemon, D. M. (2005). A screening methodology for the identification and ranking of infrastructure vulnerabilities due to terrorism. Risk Analysis: An International Journal, 25(2), 361–376. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00595.x
Cai, M., & Wang, Q. (2021). Review of hazard bearing bodies’ vulnerability assessment methods in Natech risk management. China Safety Science Journal, 31(11), 9.
Chen, W., Lv, P., & Ji, F. (2019). Risk assessment of substation grounding fault based on multidimensional detection and Petri net. Power System Protection and Control, 2047, 2152 (in Chinese).
Deng, X., Pheng, L. S., & Zhao, X. (2014). Project system vulnerability to political risks in international construction projects: The case of Chinese contractors. Project Management Journal, 45(2), 20–33. https://doi.org/10.1002/pmj.21397
Ding, Z., Bunke, H., Schneider, M., & Kandel, A. (2005). Fuzzy timed Petri net definitions, properties, and applications. Mathematical and Computer Modelling, 41(2–3), 345–360. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mcm.2003.02.015
Fidan, G., Dikmen, I., Tanyer, A. M., & Birgonul, M. T. (2011). Ontology for relating risk and vulnerability to cost overrun in international projects. Journal of Computing in Civil Engineering, 25(4), 302–315. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CP.1943-5487.0000090
Field, C. B., & Barros, V. R. (2014). Climate change 2014 – Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability: Regional aspects. Cambridge University Press.
Gallopín, G. C. (2006). Linkages between vulnerability, resilience, and adaptive capacity. Global Environmental Change, 16(3), 293–303. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.02.004
Gao, C., Wang, L., & Lv, J. (2019). Research on users information security of electricity transaction mobile client - analysis of security classification method based on fuzzy Petri net. Price: Theory & Practice, 8, 132–136 (in Chinese).
Guo, Y., Meng, X., Wang, D., Meng, T., Liu, S., & He, R. (2016). Comprehensive risk evaluation of long-distance oil and gas transportation pipelines using a fuzzy Petri net model. Journal of Natural Gas Science and Engineering, 33, 18–29. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jngse.2016.04.052
Guo, N., Guo, P., Shang, J., & Zhao, J. (2020). Project vulnerability analysis: A topological approach. Journal of the Operational Research Society, 71(8), 1233–1242. https://doi.org/10.1080/01605682.2019.1609882
Hamed, R. I. (2018). Quantitative modeling of gene networks of biological systems using fuzzy Petri nets and fuzzy sets. Journal of King Saud University - Science, 30(1), 112–119. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jksus.2017.01.005
Huang, D., Zhang, C., Lall, U., & Xu, M. (2013). Study on the social stability risk of large hydraulic project. Chinese Journal of Population, Resources and Environment, 23, 89–95.
Ji, C., Hua, W., & Yuan, J. (2016). Vulnerability evaluation method of infrastructure PPP project. Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice, 36(03), 623–622.
Johansson, J., Hassel, H., & Zio, E. (2013). Reliability and vulnerability analyses of critical infrastructures: Comparing two approaches in the context of power systems. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 120, 27–38. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2013.02.027
Kermanshachi, S., Dao, B., Shane, J., & Anderson, S. (2016). An empirical study into identifying project complexity management strategies. Procedia Engineering, 145, 603–610. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proeng.2016.04.050
Lankao, P. R., & Qin, H. (2011). Conceptualizing urban vulnerability to global climate and environmental change. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 3(3), 142–149. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2010.12.016
Le, Y., Wan, J., & Cao, L. (2019). Evaluation and demonstration of vulnerability of major engineering social system. Statistics & Decision, 9, 52–55 (in Chinese).
Li, H., & Zhang, P. (2011). Research progress and prospective applications of vulnerability approach under global change. Progress in Geography, 7, 920–929.
Li, H., Zhang, P., & Cheng, Y. (2008). Concepts and assessment methods of vulnerability. Progress in Geography, 27(2), 18–25.
Li, Y., Le, Y., & Chong, D. (2011). Literature review on large-scale complex project organization: sociology perspectives. Journal of Engineering Management, 25(1), 46–50 (in Chinese).
Li, H., Wang, Z., Yang, Q., Zhang, Y., & Ouyang, Z. (2021). Evolutionary model and risk analysis of metro disaster chain under complex network. China Safety Science Journal, 31(11), 141.
Liang, L., Xing, G.-h., & Wu, F.-y. (2019). The evaluation model and method based on cloud theory. Journal of Northeastern University (Natural Science), 40(6), 881.
Mu, H.-B. (2010). Modeling and analyzing on road traffic accident causation based on fuzzy Petri net. Zhongguo Anquan Kexue Xuebao, 20(12), 93–97.
Okudan, O., Budayan, C., & Dikmen, I. (2021). A knowledge-based risk management tool for construction projects using case-based reasoning. Expert Systems with Applications, 173, 114776. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2021.114776
Ozcan, G., Dikmen, I., & Birgonul, M. T. (2011). Assessment of risk paths in construction projects. International Journal of Project Organisation and Management, 3(3–4), 316–334. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJPOM.2011.042036
Petri, C. A. (1962). Fundamentals of a theory of asynchronous information flow. Paper presented at the IFIP Congress.
Qiao, R. (2020). Risk assessment of complex engineering projects considering vulnerability [Master thesis]. Huaqiao University, Xiamen, China.
Qiao, R., Qin, X., & Chen, S. (2020). Defining vulnerability of complex construction projects from the Wittgenstein family-resemblance philosophy. In ICCREM 2020: Intelligent Construction and Sustainable Buildings (pp. 538–546). American Society of Civil Engineers Reston, VA. https://doi.org/10.1061/9780784483237.064
Qin, X. (2016). Vulnerability of risk paths of complex green building projects. Journal of ZheJiang University (Engineering Science), 50(11), 2177–2187.
Ren, D. (2017). Reliability diagnosis model of supply chain based on intuitionistic fuzzy Petri net. Computer Engineering and Applications, 5, 260–265 (in Chinese).
Ren, H. (2012). Gigantic projects management. Science Press (in Chinese).
Santolini, M., Ellinas, C., & Nicolaides, C. (2021). Uncovering the fragility of large-scale engineering projects. EPJ Data Science, 10(1), 36. https://doi.org/10.1140/epjds/s13688-021-00291-w
Shen, V. R., Lai, H.-Y., & Lai, A.-F. (2015). The implementation of a smartphone-based fall detection system using a high-level fuzzy Petri net. Applied Soft Computing, 26, 390–400. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asoc.2014.10.028
Shi, Q., Huang, Y., Chen, J., & Ding, X. (2018). Organization systems integration of megaprojects based on big data technologies. Journal of Systems & Management, 27(1), 137–146 (in Chinese).
Smit, B., & Wandel, J. (2006). Adaptation, adaptive capacity and vulnerability. Global Environmental Change, 16(3), 282–292. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.03.008
Su, G., & Khallaf, R. (2022). Research on the influence of risk on construction project performance: A systematic review. Sustainability, 14(11), 6412. https://doi.org/10.3390/su14116412
Timmerman, P. (1981). Resilience and the collapse of society: A review of models and possible climatic applications. Toronto, Canada: Institute for Environmental Studies. http://www.ilankelman.org/miscellany/Timmerman1981.pdf
Turner, B. L., Kasperson, R. E., Matson, P. A., McCarthy, J. J., Corell, R. W., Christensen, L., Eckley, N., Kasperson, J. X., Luers, A., Martello, M. L., Polsky, C., Pulsipher, A., & Schiller, A. (2003). A framework for vulnerability analysis in sustainability science. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 100(14), 8074–8079. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1231335100
Vidal, L. A., & Marle, F. (2012). A systems thinking approach for project vulnerability management. Kybernetes, 41(1/2), 206–228. https://doi.org/10.1108/03684921211213043
Wan, X. (2016). Analysis and assessment of metro station operation vulnerability due to passenger behaviors [PhD thesis]. Nanjin Southeast University, China.
Wu, G., & Kairong, H. (2015). Research review on risk assessment of super-huge infrastructure projects. Construction Economy, 2, 111–115 (in Chinese).
Xiang, P., & Li, J. (2016). Research on system vulnerability of interregional large-scale construction projects. Systems Engineering – Theory & Practice, 36, 2383–2390.
Xiang, P., & Pang, X. (2021). Risk integration measurement of major engineering projects. Project Management Technology, 19(9), 36–40.
Xianguo, W., Huang, Y., & Liu, H. (2016). Vulnerability analysis of subway network based on complex network theory. Journal of Chongqing Jiaotong University.
Yildiz, A. E., Dikmen, T., Toker, İ., Birgönül, M. T., Ercoskun, K., & Alten, S. (2014). A knowledge-based risk mapping tool for cost estimation of international construction projects. Automation in Construction, 43, 144–155. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.autcon.2014.03.010
Yuan, J. F., Li, Q. M., Jia, R. Y., & Wang, Z. R. (2012). Analysis of operation vulnerabilities of urban metro network system. Zhongguo Anquan Kexue Xuebao, 22(5), 92–98.
Zhang, H. (2007). A redefinition of the project risk process: Using vulnerability to open up the event-consequence link. International Journal of Project Management, 25(7), 694–701. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2007.02.004
Zhou, Y., Li, N., & Wu, W. (2014). Research progress on social vulnerability to natural disasters Journal of Catastrophology, 29(2), 128–135 (in Chinese).
Zhu, F., Hu, H., & Xu, F. (2022). Risk causation model to capture and transfer knowledge in international construction projects. Journal of Civil Engineering and Management, 28(6), 457–468. https://doi.org/10.3846/jcem.2022.16925