Bitcoin price and Chinese green bonds: evidence from the QARDL method
Abstract
This article primally explores the short-term fluctuation and long-term implications of the international Bitcoin price (BP) on the Chinese green bond (GB) market, within the sample period of 2014:M10–2023:M07. Bitcoin is the most important cryptocurrency and has a carbon-intensive feature, and its price suffers from great volatility and is closely related to the green finance market. Meanwhile, although China is the largest bitcoin mining state, it is pursuing a dual carbon target, which promotes its green bond market’s development. Thus, it is valuable to investigate the influence of BP on GBs in China. Based on the quantile autoregressive distributed lag approach, this paper indicates that the positive and negative impacts of BP on the GB market are significant in the long-term but not apparent in the short-term. These results emphasize the importance for market participants to obtain a better understanding of how BP affects GB under various market circumstances. Implementing specific policies, such as regulatory mechanisms for Bitcoin trade, market-oriented reform for the bond market, and information disclosure, can alleviate shocks from BP and accelerate the development of the GB market.
First published online 20 May 2024
Keyword : bitcoin price, green bond index, quantile auto-regressive distributed lag model
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
References
Ahmed, M. I., Farah, Q. F., & Kishan, R. (2023). Oil price uncertainty and unemployment dynamics: Nonlinearities matter. Energy Economics, 125, Article 106806. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2023.106806
Alzakri, S. (2023). Does financial stability inspire environmental innovation? Empirical insights from China. Journal of Cleaner Production, 416, Article 137896. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2023.137896
Baruník, J., & Křehlík, T. (2018). Measuring the frequency dynamics of financial connectedness and systemic risk. Journal of Financial Econometrics, 16(2), 271–296. https://doi.org/10.1093/jjfinec/nby001
Bejan, C. A., Bucerzan, D., & Craciun, M. D. (2023). Bitcoin price evolution versus energy consumption; trend analysis. Applied Economics, 55(13), 1497–1511. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2022.2097194
Blasco, N., & Corredor, P. (2022). If the bitcoin market grows, size matters. Applied Economics Letters, 29(11), 983–987. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2021.1904101
Bruno, A., Weber, P., & Yates, A. (2023). Can Bitcoin mining increase renewable electricity capacity? Resource and Energy Economics, 74, Article 101376. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2023.101376
Che, M., Zhu, Z., & Li, Y. (2023). Geopolitical risk and economic policy uncertainty: Different roles in China’s financial cycle. International Review of Financial Analysis, 90, Article 102867. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2023.102867
Cho, J. S., Kim, T, & Shin, Y. (2015). Quantile cointegration in the autoregressive distributed-lag modeling framework. Journal of Econometrics, 188(1), 281–300. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2015.05.003
Ciaian, P., Rajcaniova, M., & Kancs, D. (2016). The economics of Bitcoin price formation. Applied Economics, 48(19), 1799–1815. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2015.1109038
Corbet, S., & Yarovaya, L. (2020). The environmental effects of cryptocurrencies. In S. Corbert, A. Urquhart, & L. Yarovaya (Eds.), Cryptocurrency and blockchain technology (pp. 149–184). De Gruyter. https://doi.org/10.1515/9783110660807-009
Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1981). Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica, 49(4), 1057–1072. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912517
Du, G. (2023). Nexus between green finance, renewable energy, and carbon intensity in selected Asian countries. Journal of Cleaner Production, 405, Article 136822. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2023.136822
Duan, K., Zhao, Y., Wang, Z., & Chang, Y. (2023). Asymmetric spillover from Bitcoin to green and traditional assets: A comparison with gold. International Review of Economics & Finance, 88, 1397–1417. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2023.06.036
Erdogan, S., Ahmed, M. Y., & Sarkodie, S. A. (2022). Analyzing asymmetric effects of cryptocurrency demand on environmental sustainability. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 29, 31723–31733. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-17998-y
Fan, R., Xiong, X., Li, Y., & Gao, Y. (2023). Do green bonds affect stock returns and corporate environmental performance? Evidence from China. Economics Letters, 232, Article 111322. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2023.111322
Godil, D. I., Sarwat, S., Sharif, A., & Jermsittiparsert, K. (2020). How oil prices, gold prices, uncertainty and risk impact Islamic and conventional stocks? Empirical evidence from QARDL technique. Resources Policy, 66, Article 101638. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2020.101638
Goodell, J. W., Corbet, S., Yadav, M. P., Kumar, S., Sharma, S., & Malik, K. (2022). Time and frequency connectedness of green equity indices: Uncovering a socially important link to Bitcoin. International Review of Financial Analysis, 84, Article 102379. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2022.102379
Goodkind, A. L., Berrens, R. P., & Jones, B. A. (2022). Estimating the climate and health damages of Bitcoin mining in the US: Is Bitcoin underwater? Applied Economics Letters, 31(6), 555–560. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2022.2140107
Guo, C. Q., Wang, X., Cao, D. D., & Hou, Y. G. (2022). The impact of green finance on carbon emission – Analysis based on mediation effect and spatial effect. Frontiers in Environmental Science, 10, Article 844988. https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2022.844988
Guo, Q., Dong, Y., Feng, B., & Zhang, H. (2023). Can green finance development promote total-factor energy efficiency? Empirical evidence from China based on a spatial Durbin model. Energy Policy, 177, Article 113523. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113523
He, L., Liu, R., Zhong, Z., Wang, D., & Xia, Y. (2019). Can green financial development promote renewable energy investment efficiency? A consideration of bank credit. Renewable Energy, 143, 974–984. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2019.05.059
Hoang, D. P., Chu, L. K., & To, T. T. (2023). How do economic policy uncertainty, geopolitical risk, and natural resources rents affect economic complexity? Evidence from advanced and emerging market economies. Resources Policy, 85, Article 103856. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2023.103856
Hong, H., & Zhang, C. (2023). Bitcoin trading, economic growth, energy use, and CO2 emissions: An advanced panel study of emerging market economies. International Review of Economics & Finance, 87, 519–531. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2023.06.003
Hoque, M. E., Soo-Wah, L., Tiwari, A. K., & Akhter, T. (2023). Time and frequency domain connectedness and spillover among categorical and regional financial stress, gold and bitcoin market. Resources Policy, 85, Article 103786. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2023.103786
Howson, P., & De Vries, A. (2022). Preying on the poor? Opportunities and challenges for tackling the social and environmental threats of cryptocurrencies for vulnerable and low-income communities. Energy Research & Social Science, 84, Article 102394. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2021.102394
Huang, J., An, L., Peng, W., & Guo, L. (2023a). Identifying the role of green financial development played in carbon intensity: Evidence from China. Journal of Cleaner Production, 408, Article 136943. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2023.136943
Huang, Y., Duan, K., & Urquhart, A. (2023b). Time-varying dependence between Bitcoin and green financial assets: A comparison between pre- and post-COVID-19 periods. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 82, Article 101687. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2022.101687
Jiang, S., Li, Y., Lu, Q., Hong, Y., Guan, D., Xiong, Y., & Wang, S. (2021). Policy assessments for the carbon emission flows and sustainability of Bitcoin blockchain operation in China. Nature Communications, 12, Article 1938, 1–10. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22256-3
Khalfaoui, R., Jabeur, S. B., & Dogan, B. (2022). The spillover effects and connectedness among green commodities, Bitcoins, and US stock markets: Evidence from the quantile VAR network. Journal of Environmental Management, 306, Article 114493. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.114493
Khalfaoui, R., Mefteh-Wali, S., Dogan, B., & Ghosh, S. (2023). Extreme spillover effect of COVID-19 pandemic-related news and cryptocurrencies on green bond markets: A quantile connectedness analysis. International Review of Financial Analysis, 86, Article 102496. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2023.102496
Koenker, R., & Xiao, Z. (2006). Quantile autoregression. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 101(475), 980–990. https://doi.org/10.1198/016214506000000672
Kristoufek, L. (2020). Bitcoin and its mining on the equilibrium path. Energy Economics, 85, Article 104588. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2019.104588
Kwiatkowski, D., Phillips, P. C. B., Schmidt, P., & Shin, Y. (1992). Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root: How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root? Journal of Econometrics, 54(1–3), 159–178. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(92)90104-Y
Le, T. L., Abakah. E. J. A., & Tiwari, A. K. (2021). Time and frequency domain connectedness and spill-over among fintech, green bonds and cryptocurrencies in the age of the fourth industrial revolution. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 162, Article 120382. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2020.120382
Lee, Y., Vo, A., & Chapman, T. A. (2022). Examining the maturity of bitcoin price through a catastrophic event: The case of structural break analysis during the COVID-19 pandemic. Finance Research Letters, 49, Article 103165. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2022.103165
Li, H., Huang, X., Zhou, D., & Guo, L. (2023a). The dynamic linkages among crude oil price, climate change and carbon price in China. Energy Strategy Reviews, 48, Article 101123. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2023.101123
Li, J., Liang, H., & Ni, L. (2023b). Quantile VAR network evidence for spillover effects and connectivity between China’s stock markets, green commodities, and Bitcoin. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 30, 82353–82371. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-28033-7
Liu, F., Wang, L., Kong, D., Shi, C., Feng, Z., Zhou, J., Liu, J., & Li, Z. (2023). Is there more to bitcoin mining than carbon emissions? Heliyon, 9(4), Article e15099. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e15099
Long, S., Lucey, B., Zhang, D., & Zhang, Z. (2023). Negative elements of cryptocurrencies: Exploring the drivers of Bitcoin carbon footprints. Finance Research Letters, 58, Article 104031. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2023.104031
Lu, C., Yang, M., & Xia, X. (2023). Economic policy uncertainty and default risk: Evidence from China. Economic Analysis and Policy, 79, 821–836. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2023.06.028
Mahmood, M. T., Shahab, S., & Shahbaz, M. (2021). The relevance of economic freedom for energy, environment, and economic growth in Asia-Pacific region. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 29, 5396–5405. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-15991-z
Maiti, M., Vukovic, D. B., & Frömmel, M. (2023). Quantifying the asymmetric information flow between Bitcoin prices and electricity consumption. Finance Research Letters, 57, Article 104163. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2023.104163
Malfuzi, A., Mehr, A. S., Rosen, M. A., Alharthi, M., & Kurilova, A. A. (2020). Economic viability of bitcoin mining using a renewable-based SOFC power system to supply the electrical power demand. Energy, 203, Article 117843. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2020.117843
Mamun, M. A., Boubaker, S., & Nguyen, D. K. (2022). Green finance and decarbonization: Evidence from around the world. Finance Research Letters, 46, Article 102807. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2022.102807
Man, Y., Zhang, S., & Liu, J. (2023). Dynamic connectedness, asymmetric risk spillovers, and hedging performance of China’s green bonds. Finance Research Letters, 56, Article 104083. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2023.104083
Mensi, W., Shahzad, S. J. H., Hammoudeh, S., Hkiri, B., & Yahyaee, K. H. A. (2019). Long-run relationships between US financial credit markets and risk factors: Evidence from the quantile ARDL approach. Finance Research Letters, 29, 101–110. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2019.03.007
Mohsin, K. (2021). Cryptocurrency & its impact on environment. International Journal of Cryptocurrency Research, 1(1), 1–4. https://doi.org/10.51483/IJCCR.1.1.2021.1-4
Mohsin, M., Naseem, S., Zia-ur-Rehman, M., Baig, S. A., & Salamat, S. (2020). The crypto-trade volume, GDP, energy use, and environmental degradation sustainability: An analysis of the top 20 crypto-trader countries. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 28(1), 651–667. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.2442
Mora, C., Rollins, R. L., Taladay, K., Kantar, M. B., Chock, M., Shimada, M., & Franklin, E. C. (2018). Bitcoin emissions alone could push global warming above 2°C. Nature Climate Change, 8, 931–933. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0321-8
Naeem, M. A., & Karim, S. (2021). Tail dependence between bitcoin and green financial assets. Economics Letters, 208, Article 110068. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2021.110068
Numan, U., Ma, B., Sadiq, M., Bedru, H. D., & Jiang, C. (2023). The role of green finance in mitigating environmental degradation: Empirical evidence and policy implications from complex economies. Journal of Cleaner Production, 400, Article 136693. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2023.136693
Pagone, E., Hart, A., & Salonitis, K. (2023). Carbon footprint comparison of bitcoin and conventional currencies in a life cycle analysis perspective. Procedia CIRP, 116, 468–473. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.procir.2023.02.079
Pang, D., Li, K., Wang, G., & Ajaz, T. (2022). The asymmetric effect of green investment, natural resources, and growth on financial inclusion in China. Resources Policy, 78, Article 102885. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2022.102885
Pham, L., Huynh, T. L. D., & Hanif, W. (2021). Cryptocurrency, green and fossil fuel investments. SSRN, http://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3925844
Phillips, P. C. B., & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika, 75(2), 335–346. https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/75.2.335
Qian, S., & Yu, W. (2023). Green finance and environmental, social, and governance performance. International Review of Economics & Finance, 89, 1185–1202. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2023.08.017
Qin, M., Wu, T., Ma, X., Albu, L. L., & Umar, M. (2023). Are energy consumption and carbon emission caused by Bitcoin? A novel time-varying technique. Economic Analysis and Policy, 80, 109–120. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2023.08.004
Ran, C., & Zhang, Y. (2023). The driving force of carbon emissions reduction in China: Does green finance work. Journal of Cleaner Production, 421, Article 138502. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2023.138502
Razmi, S. F., & Razmi, S. M. J. (2023). The role of stock markets in the US, Europe, and China on oil prices before and after the COVID-19 announcement. Resources Policy, 81, Article 103386. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2023.103386
Ren, X., An, Y., & Jin, C. (2023). The asymmetric effect of geopolitical risk on China’s crude oil prices: New evidence from a QARDL approach. Finance Research Letters, 53, Article 103637. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2023.103637
Ren, X., Shao, Q., Ph.D., & Zhong, R. (2020). Nexus between green finance, non-fossil energy use, and carbon intensity: Empirical evidence from China based on a vector error correction model. Journal of Cleaner Production, 277, Article 122844. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.122844
Sadiq, M., Chau, K. Y., Ha, N. T. T., Phan, T. T. H., Ngo, T. Q., & Huy, P. Q. (2023). The impact of green finance, eco-innovation, renewable energy and carbon taxes on CO2 emissions in BRICS countries: Evidence from CS ARDL estimation. Geoscience Frontiers, 11, Article 101689. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gsf.2023.101689
Salisu, A., Ndako, U. B., & Vo, X. V. (2023). Oil price and the Bitcoin market. Resources Policy, 82, Article 103437. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2023.103437
Sarker, P. K., Lau, C. K. M., & Pradhan, A. K. (2023). Asymmetric effects of climate policy uncertainty and energy prices on bitcoin prices. Innovation and Green Development, 2(2), Article 100048. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.igd.2023.100048
Sarkodie, S. A., Ahmed, M. Y., & Leirvik, T. (2022). Trade volume affects bitcoin energy consumption and carbon footprint. Finance Research Letters, 48, Article 10297. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2022.102977
Sharma, G. D., Shahbaz, M., Singh, S., Chopra, R., & Cifuentes-Faura, J. (2023). Investigating the nexus between green economy, sustainability, bitcoin and oil prices: Contextual evidence from the United States. Resources Policy, 80, Article 103168. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2022.103168
Sinha, A., Ghosh, V., Hussain, N., Nguyen, D. K., & Das, N. (2023). Green financing of renewable energy generation: Capturing the role of exogenous moderation for ensuring sustainable development. Energy Economics, 126, Article 107021. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2023.107021
Song, M., Xie, Q., & Shen, Z. (2021). Impact of green credit on high-efficiency utilization of energy in China considering environmental constraints. Energy Policy, 153, Article 112267. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112267
Su, X., Guo, D., & Dai, L. (2023). Do green bond and green stock markets boom and bust together? Evidence from China. International Review of Financial Analysis, 89, Article 102744. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2023.102744
Symitsi, E., & Chalvatzis, K. J. (2018). Return, volatility and shock spillovers of Bitcoin with energy and technology companies. Economics Letters, 170, 127–130. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2018.06.012
Tariq, A., & Hassan, A. (2023). Role of green finance, environmental regulations, and economic development in the transition towards a sustainable environment. Journal of Cleaner Production, 413, Article 137425. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2023.137425
Truby, J., Brown, R. D., Dahdal, A., & Ibrahim, I. (2022). Blockchain, climate damage, and death: Policy interventions to reduce the carbon emissions, mortality, and net-zero implications of non-fungible tokens and Bitcoin. Energy Research & Social Science, 88, Article 102499. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2022.102499
Udeagha, M. C., & Ngepah, N. (2023). The drivers of environmental sustainability in BRICS economies: Do green finance and fintech matter? World Development Sustainability, 3, Article 100096. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wds.2023.100096
Umar, M., & Safi, A. (2023). Do green finance and innovation matter for environmental protection? A case of OECD economies. Energy Economics, 119, Article 106560. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2023.106560
Vries, A. (2019). Renewable energy will not solve bitcoin’s sustainability problem. Joule, 3(4), 893–898. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2019.02.007
Wang, J., Tian, J., Kang, Y., & Guo, K. (2023a). Can green finance development abate carbon emissions: Evidence from China. International Review of Economics & Finance, 88, 73–91. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2023.06.011
Wang, C., Zheng, C., Hu, C., Luo, Y., & Liang, M. (2023b). Resources sustainability and energy transition in China: Asymmetric role of digital trade and policy uncertainty using QARDL. Resources Policy, 85, Article 103845. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2023.103845
Wang, K. H., Wang, Z. S., Yunis, M., & Kchouri, B. (2023c). Spillovers and connectedness among climate policy uncertainty, energy, green bond and carbon markets: A global perspective. Energy Economics, 128, Article 107170. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2023.107170
Wang, F., & Liao, H. (2022). Unexpected economic growth and oil price shocks. Energy Economics, 116, Article 106430. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2022.106430
Wang, Q., & Zhang, F. (2021). What does the China’s economic recovery after COVID-19 pandemic mean for the economic growth and energy consumption of other countries? Journal of Cleaner Production, 295, Article 126265. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2021.126265
Wang, G., Tang, Y., Xie, C., & Chen, S. (2019). Is bitcoin a safe haven or a hedging asset? Evidence from China. Journal of Management Science and Engineering, 4(3), 173–188. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmse.2019.09.001
Wu, X., & Ding, S. (2023). The impact of the Bitcoin price on carbon neutrality: Evidence from futures markets. Finance Research Letters, 56, Article 104128. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2023.104128
Wu, C., Xu, C., Zhao, Q., & Zhu, J. (2023). Research on financing strategy under the integration of green supply chain and blockchain technology. Computers & Industrial Engineering, 184, Article 109598. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cie.2023.109598
Xia, Y., Shi, Z., Du, X., Niu, M., & Cai, R. (2023). Can green assets hedge against economic policy uncertainty? Evidence from China with portfolio implications. Finance Research Letters, 55, Article 103874. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2023.103874
Xiang, S., & Cao, Y. (2023). Green finance and natural resources commodities prices: Evidence from COVID-19 period. Resources Policy, 80, Article 103200. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2022.103200
Xu, X., & Li, J. (2023). Can green bonds reduce the carbon emissions of cities in China? Economics Letters, 226, Article 111099. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2023.111099
Zhang, W., Hong, M., Li, J., & Li, F. (2021). An examination of green credit promoting carbon dioxide emissions reduction: A provincial panel analysis of China. Sustainability, 13(13), Article 7148. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13137148
Zhang, Y., Huang, Y., & Wang, X. (2023). Impact of economic policy uncertainty, oil prices, and technological innovations on natural resources footprint in BRICS economies. Resources Policy, 86, Article 104082. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2023.104082
Zhao, J., & Zhang, T. (2023). Exploring the time-varying dependence between Bitcoin and the global stock market: Evidence from a TVP-VAR approach. Finance Research Letters, 58, Article 104342. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2023.104342
Zhao, S., He, X., & Faxritdinovna, K. U. (2023). Does industrial structure changes matter in renewable energy development? Mediating role of green finance development. Renewable Energy, 214, 350–358. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2023.05.088
Zheng, J., Jiang, Y., Cui, Y., & Shen, Y. (2023). Green bond issuance and corporate ESG performance: Steps toward green and low-carbon development. Research in International Business and Finance, 66, Article 102007. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2023.102007
Zhu, L., Li, H., & Zheng, D. (2020b). Institutional industry herding in China. The Chinese Economy, 53(3), 246–264. https://doi.org/10.1080/10971475.2020.1720963
Zhu, N., Bu, Y., Jin, M., & Mbroh, N. (2020a). Green financial behavior and green development strategy of Chinese power companies in the context of carbon tax. Journal of Cleaner Production, 245, Article 118908. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.118908
Zivot, E., & Andrews, D. W. K. (2012). Further evidence on the great crash, the oil-price shock, and the unit-root hypothesis. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 20(1), 25–44. https://doi.org/10.1198/073500102753410372